Madagascar et Haiti | Study on the Development of an Anticipatory Model Based on Weather Forecasting

Due to their geographic locations, Haiti and Madagascar are regularly exposed to extreme hydrological and meteorological events that cause major human and material damage. These recurring disasters hinder economic development and exacerbate the vulnerability of populations in need of increased humanitarian support.

With support from the German Federal Foreign Office (GFFO) and the Aktion Deutschland Hilft consortium, Humanity & Inclusion commissioned TDS Group to develop an anticipatory model based on weather forecasts for cyclone and flood risks.

Main objectives of the Study

• Assess existing mapping tools and forecasting systems in Haiti and Madagascar
• Identify available data, vulnerability indices, and risk maps 
• Develop an operational anticipatory model tailored to both contexts 
• Provide recommendations for the model’s adoption, deployment, and continuous improvement

Contributions of TDS Group

TDS Group’s work notably made it possible to: 

• Define the technical prerequisites for developing the model 
• Analyse risks and vulnerabilities at the level of targeted municipalities 
• Design an anticipatory model incorporating vulnerability indices 
• Propose concrete preventive actions to be implemented
• Development of a risk atlas for the target municipalities

At the end of this multidimensional study, based on a detailed analysis of local contexts and conducted in close collaboration with field experts, TDS delivered an operational and contextualised study to Humanity & Inclusion, offering concrete recommendations for the sustainable implementation and ownership of the anticipatory model.